Catherine Sendak
Hello, my name is Catherine Sendak, and welcome to CEPA’s State of the Alliance, a series bringing together thought leaders from Europe and North America to deliberate the most pressing challenges facing allies and partners. Today I’m honored to welcome the ambassador of Poland to the United States, His Excellency, Marek Magierowski. Over the past year, Ukraine has skillfully and successfully defended itself and its European neighbors against Russia’s aggression. Today, we reflect on the transatlantic community’s role that they have and will have in ensuring Ukraine’s victory. Mr. Ambassador, thank you so much for joining us this afternoon, and on the series of State of the Alliance.

Marek Magierowski
Thank you for this kind invitation.

Catherine Sendak
We wanted to begin with your assessment of the alliance of support to Ukraine up to this point.

Marek Magierowski
It’s been pretty impressive. I think Putin miscalculated, and I’m not alone in this assessment. From the very beginning of the invasion, he thought that Europe would react more sluggishly, and more leniently to this aggression, as it did many years ago, after the Russian invasion of Georgia in 2008 and also after the annexation of Crimea in 2014. We did impose sanctions as a collective West, so to speak, but then those sanctions were lifted. And we were not adamant enough and determined enough to keep up the pressure on Russia and to stop Russia’s new imperial ambitions. Now, we have learned the lesson. This is at least my impression, the hard way, of course, because it’s been a very painful and a very lengthy process. And on the other hand, it will be a protracted conflict. Unfortunately, I’m not very optimistic about the duration of this war, although I am fairly optimistic about the final outcome, provided that we keep up the pressure, that we impose further packages of sanctions, which would finally cripple the Russian economy because I believe that is what we need in order to crush the Russian armed forces in Ukraine proper.

Catherine Sendak
Interesting, well, to that point on sanctions and further actions that the alliance should be thinking about and taking, what is your assessment of the cohesion and security of the transatlantic alliance? And what from your perspective can we do in the year to come to increase that cohesion?

Marek Magierowski
Well, actually, we have been talking quite intensely about the deepened cohesion of the North Atlantic alliance, also within the European Union, not only among NATO members. Paradoxically, I can see some fissures and cracks still, in the western alliance, namely, you can see a real a certain realignment now with some countries which understand contemporary Russia, much better than others. And I mean, Poland, of course, our central European neighbors the Balts, but also the Scandinavians and the Anglo Saxons. Maybe this is the legacy of the Cold War, maybe we have remembered the Soviet Union’s conduct, and aggression and barbaric view of the world at the peak of the Cold War. Maybe there are some other factors which we should take into consideration. Nevertheless, I think that we should remember that, yes, Putin has paradoxically reinvigorated NATO, he has strengthened, for example, the European Union’s foreign policy, which seems to be, you know, a walking corpse until recently, but I’m glad that the European Union has regained its voice on the international and on the international arena, also in this particular confrontation with Russia. However, I do think that we have to work much harder in order to sustain it as cohesion. Over the recent couple of weeks, especially when we remember all those conversations and talks and diplomatic spats tug of war, in terms of, of our view of what we should, what we should do in order to arm Ukraine, and to help Ukraine on the battleground more efficiently. There was a new ally alignment, the inside the European Union for example, okay, because so many countries have already committed themselves to delivering tanks, for example, to Ukraine. On the other hand, there is a troubling phenomenon now in the United States, especially after the midterms, with so many mostly Republican but not only but mostly Republican lawmakers expressing quite openly their misgivings about the necessity of continuing that aid. I have I’ve had a series of meeting with newly elected American lawmakers and also those who have expressed doubts about, for example, the military expenditures, which are aimed at helping Ukraine right now. They were using that argument is that the American taxpayer is maybe paying too much for that assistance. Again, I had those meetings because I came to the conclusion that perhaps it is it doesn’t make much sense to preach to the converted, we have to persuade all those people who may have the otherwise understandable doubts, because it’s quite natural, that all those politicians do converse with their own constituents. And the arguments they hear on daily basis are of a completely different nature. Most an overwhelming majority of voters here in the United States are not particularly interested in what is going on in Ukraine. This is a common feature of all democracies, constituents, and voters are mostly interested in domestic issues. But I do believe that and I’ve also heard some assurances from other lawmakers on the Hill that there will be bipartisan support unwavering for Ukraine, because I think that that perception of contemporary Russia as a symbol or an existential threat, not only to Ukraine and to the eastern flank of NATO, but also to Europe, as such, and to the United States in longer term is quite real.

Catherine Sendak
Yes, absolutely. You bring up a wonderful point about the consistent needs of Ukraine and its people. And I hope those meetings on the Hill were productive and went well. But, but, but to that end, you know, the Poland has been such a stalwart in the past year, and further beyond, on support of all degrees to Ukraine, humanitarian support

Marek Magierowski
In various dimensions.

Catherine Sendak
Correct, financial, aid, logistics, you name it, Ukraine, Poland has been so tantamount to that. I believe. Currently there are about 1.5 million Ukrainian refugees living in Poland.

Marek Magierowski
About 9 million refugees have crossed the border since the beginning of the hostilities. Of course, not all of them remained in Poland. Some remigrated to other countries, some of them returned to Ukraine, roughly 2 million stayed in Poland, but you have to combine two figures, those 2 million refugees, and also approximately 1.5 million Ukrainian economic migrants who had lived and worked in Poland before the war. So Poland’s population has increased by about 3 million people 3.5 over the last couple of years, and they integrate seamlessly into the Polish society into the Polish labor market. Also, because the unemployment rate in Poland is pretty low. So we can even physically absorb subsequent waves of Ukrainian refugees. And they enjoy many benefits. The Polish Parliament passed a law just I think, a month or two after the beginning of the war in Ukraine, which essentially facilitates the integration into Polish society, they can set up their own businesses, they can send their children to Polish schools. We have incorporated more than 200,000 Ukrainian kids into the Polish schooling system, which has been quite a challenge. They can apply for Polish ID. And on the other hand, about 95% of those refugees are women and children. And they, those women, they never say I want an allowance. They never say I want welfare. I want the Polish authorities to take care of myself of my family. They say I want a job. Because they know very well that this is what they should do. And of course, their primary dream, so to speak, is to return to their homes in Ukraine. For the time being, it’s impossible for many of them. But for example, our president has always called them guests and not refugees. And most of them, an overwhelming majority of those Ukrainian refugees have been hosted by Polish families in the Polish homes. It is a burden, of course, both in social and economic terms. But we do feel that this is our obligation. Politically speaking, but also in terms of our, you know, Christian character.

Catherine Sendak
Sure, absolutely. To that end, you know, Poland is in an unique position to understand the needs of Ukrainian people and government moving forward. Is there anything specific that you can think of moving in the year ahead that from your were you

Marek Magierowski
Ukraine has applied for membership in both the European Union and NATO, the Polish government’s position has been pretty clear from the get go on this. We do believe that Ukraine has deserved to become a part of the West. And I’m using this term deliberately, because this is something that reminds me of our path to not only to the European Union and to NATO, which are two symbolic political entities from our perspective, but also to the collective West, we had always aspired to be part of the West, or the of the free world, if you will. And I believe that Ukraine has already made some very essential important steps in that direction. Of course, this process is usually pretty long, and, and quite bumpy. But as I said, I believe Ukraine has deserved it. And they have demonstrated that they are a European country, maybe even in some respects, more European than many other European countries west of Poland.

Catherine Sendak
I thank you for that. So Mr. Ambassador, if we look at the European security situation as it stands now, you know, the belief is, is that the continent and the free world, as you say, will ensure peace and stability through a clear Ukrainian victory. From your perspective, what does that victory look like?

Marek Magierowski
First of all, we I think that many Western politicians should change a little bit of vocabulary, the vocabulary and the terminology they use on a daily basis, because until recently, they have been saying about the possibility of Ukraine not losing the war to Russia. Now, increasing an increasing number of Western political leaders are using an another term, Ukraine’s victory. And I think it’s good, it’s very good and a positive signal that we are sending also to the Kremlin, which somehow determines our long term approach to, to this very concept of arming Ukraine, as long as it takes, we should do our utmost to to ensure Ukraine’s victory on the ground. And again, it will be a very protracted conflict, we should not expect immediate, positive results. But I believe this is what we should be saying on a daily basis, we need to keep arming Ukraine because it is also in our interest. They are fighting not only for their own freedom, or their own sovereignty, but they are fighting also for others. And if we don’t stop putting now arming Ukraine, he will return with a vengeance. And as I’ve already said on on numerous occasions here, Poland may be the next item on his menu. For for the time being, I don’t believe that he will dare attack one of NATO member states, still we have to be prepared for every eventuality.

Catherine Sendak
Absolutely. And finally, from that perspective, are there any long term resilience measures that the alliance should be considering to boost the defense and deterrence on your in Europe?

Marek Magierowski
we are in a very in a in a kind of a twilight zone because we we were we were not thinking in the wildest dreams of the possibility of a regular land warfare in in Central Europe, actually, in the 21st century, which somehow reminds us of World War 1. Warfare, trenches, artillery, this is something pretty unusual, and I think surprising for people who are not exactly military experts. But speaking of resilience and deterrence, I think that unlike during the Cold War, the world economy or economies are deeply intertwined right now, which has its upsides and its downsides. So if we are ready to acknowledge that we are in a long term, we are engaged in long term confrontation with Russia, we have to take all necessary steps. And we have to contemplate all possible measures to win this clash, to prevail in this confrontation, including also economic punitive measures, which as I said, have not yet kicked in. I think that the Russian society and the Russian economy has yet to feel the pinch of those sanctions. On the other hand, we are still too reliant on on the Russian economy on the Russian gas and oil supplies and I think that we should well again, it’s been a very hard lesson to learn. Germany, for example, went from 55 to 60% of its reliance on on Russian on imports of Russian gas to zero. So it turns out that it was possible as opposed to what many experts had been saying, until recently, it is possible for us to decouple ourselves from oil and gas imports from Russia, as Poland did just a few months ago. So actually, since October last year, we have been entirely independent of imports of Russian commodities. So this is, again, we have to arm ourselves with patience. Because as I said, there will be no immediate staggering results of those economic sanctions. But I think that they’re also boundaries to even Russia’s resilience in that respect.

Catherine Sendak
Committed to the long term. Absolutely. Absolutely. Mr. Ambassador, thank you so much for joining us today. And thank you all for tuning in to this conversation on State of the Alliance hosted by CEPA. Be sure to visit cepaorg.pages.dev and follow CEPA’s social media accounts to stay up to date on the latest events and analysis.